MP Bike Split & Pacing Calculator

Know your likely bike split—and exactly how to ride it

Upload your race course to estimate your bike split and build a course-specific pacing plan using your power, weight, bike setup, elevation and race-day conditions.

Predicted bike split Personalised power plan Race-day pacing cheat sheet

01 Upload your race course GPX course or route file

Drop your GPX file here

or click to select a file · use a course from Garmin, Strava, RideWithGPS or your event organiser

or choose a built-in course

Course selector

Choose a course

Demo courses are synthetic examples. Verified routes load local organiser GPX files where available; other library routes stay clearly labelled as planning routes until an official GPX is added. Confirm the final event route before race day.

A realistic planning range—not an unrealistic promise.

Course—

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Distance km

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Gain m

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Loss m

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Segments

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Start lat, lon

Course health report

Course quality: —

——GPX quality score

02 Rider & bike

Quick Mode The essential inputs and a sensible power starting point. You can still edit the suggested target.

Event type Effort profile Pacing strategy

Suggested starting point — Choose your event and enter FTP to create a starting target.

Your defaults

Preferences & bike setups

Bike setup Setup name Bike / wheels / tyres Setup notes

Steady + climb boost Variable (time-optimal)

Rider weight kg Bike + kit kg FTP watts Target power watts Max power %FTP cap Riding position / CdA average Known CdA m² · overrides preset Yaw-aware CdA optional CdA at 10° yaw m² · blank = fixed CdA at 20° yaw m² · blank = fixed Road surface / Crr Tyres setup record Pressure psi front / rear Tube / sealant setup record Drivetrain loss % · default 2.5 Dead turns / U-turns count Time cost per turn sec Climb effort boost % on grades >2% Advanced physics off preserves classic model Automatic cornering bearing changes Descending model Climb position CdA % increase Descent position CdA % increase Max 1-min power W optional Max 5-min power W optional Max 20-min power W optional Late fade % by finish Optimisation objective

Manual course power targets optional · distance-based

Pin exact course sections to a target power. Variable pacing adjusts the remaining course towards the overall NP goal; max-power and enabled duration caps still apply.

No manual targets — the selected pacing model controls the full course.

Quick Mode: the power suggestion is a planning starting point based on FTP, event type and selected effort—not a substitute for a tested race plan. Advanced values remain available and are preserved when you switch modes.

Steady: even power on the flats, lifted by the climb boost over 2%. Variable: a simplified optimiser — fastest-bike mode spends watts where they buy the most time, while best-triathlon mode prefers smoother VI and fewer surges for a better run setup. Manual course targets pin selected distances while the optimiser adjusts the rest towards the NP goal. Advanced physics can add a yaw-aware CdA curve, calibrated speed-aware course losses, descending caps, rider-position changes, drivetrain loss, fatigue fade, altitude-adjusted air density and 1/5/20-minute power caps. Fixed CdA, no manual targets and 2.5% drivetrain loss remain the defaults.

03 Race-day conditions

Pull forecast (Open-Meteo) Set manually

Race date Bike start time race-local

Wind scenario km/h adjustment Wind direction shift degrees Forecast wind exposure advanced Manual altitude m optional

Forecast covers ~16 days ahead. Beyond that, or with no internet, flick to manual. Fetched weather is sampled along the GPX and advances through both course position and expected arrival time.

Course timezone—

Start time—

Forecast updated—

Conditions—

Route coverage—

Wind exposure model—

Wind—

Rain / feels like—

Confidence—

Weather prompts—

04 Saved race plans browser storage on this device

Save, reopen, duplicate and compare race plans locally. Uploaded GPX text is stored in your browser with the plan.

Your race plan

Course-specific pacing recommendation

Assessing plan Based on selected effort, IF, TSS and pacing variability

Likely bike split

—:—:—

—realistic planning range

— km/h expected average

Target normalized power— WYour key whole-ride intensity target

Expected average power— WIncludes coasting, descents and terrain changes

Climb power ceiling—Course-specific climbing guardrail

Pacing variability goal≤ —Keep surges controlled to protect the run

Estimated bike stress— TSSInterpreted for your selected event

Selected intensityIF —Normalized power relative to FTP

Moore Performance coach's view

Your plan is being assessed

The calculator will translate the physics result into a practical race-day pacing recommendation.

Race-day weather effect

Wind cost & exposure

Wind time cost—Current conditions versus calm air

Calm-air split—Same rider, bike, power and route

Headwind distanceRoute above 0.5 m/s headwind

Longest headwind—Continuous exposed distance

Peak crosswind gust—Wheel-handling planning input

Peak gust—Maximum forecast along the route

View advanced performance metrics

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Predicted VI

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Work kJ

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Average W/kg

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System kg

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Gain m/km

Plan fuelling for this split →

Prediction confidence

The app is assessing the quality of the course, aerodynamic inputs, rolling-resistance assumptions, weather and technical-course modelling.

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AssessingHigher score = better real-data support

Best realistic case—Favourable but plausible assumptions

Most likely—Current inputs and model assumptions

Conservative case—Reasonable downside allowance

This is a practical planning envelope, not a statistical probability interval. Higher scores mean more real, race-specific inputs are supporting the model, so the planned split is more likely to finish close to the actual ride. The time range shows how much the estimate can move under reasonable changes to the least-certain inputs.

What-if drag to see the time move — table and chart stay on the baseline

Power0% (— W)

Weight0% (— kg)

Drag / CdA0% (—)

Crr0% (—)

Adjusted time

—:—:—

Scenario compare

Metric	A (pinned)	B (current)	Δ

Scenario manager compare power, equipment and weather options

Save multiple named scenarios from this course and identify the fastest option that still looks raceable.

Bike setup A Bike setup B CdA change m² Tyre Crr change % System mass change kg Wind change km/h Wind direction shift degrees

Scenario	Type	NP	Split	Δ current	IF	TSS	Risk	Safe?	Change

Interactive course map

Explore the route by gradient, target power or predicted speed. Hover the map or elevation profile to inspect the same course point.

Course pointFull route

Elevation—

Grade / density—

Power—

Speed—

Wind—

Gradient

Colour is supported by the numerical readout above.

Elevation and predicted speed hover or use the arrow keys to inspect the course

Elevation Predicted speed (grey → pink = slow → fast)

Race-day plan & cheat sheet

A practical execution plan generated from this exact course, power target and weather simulation.

Course: —Event: —Race: —

Likely bike split——

Target NP—Primary pacing anchor

Expected avg—Course-weighted average

Climb ceiling—Sustained climb limit

VI goal—Keep the ride controlled

Confidence—Input quality

How to ride it

Top-tube stripPrint, trim and laminate or save as a reference.

Course anchors

Power to hold

Scenario	Watts

Speed to expect

Scenario	km/h

Workout exporter

Download course-specific target-power files for indoor platforms, head units or coach review.

Workout basis Export format

Calculate a split to build workout files.

TrainingPeaks structured TT workout

Creates a planned-workout .zwo from distance-based course chunks. Exact manual kilometre boundaries stay separate; optimiser sections use sensible 1, 2 or 5 km chunks based on course length.

Calculate or reopen a saved plan to build the TrainingPeaks workout.

How to add it to TrainingPeaks

In the TrainingPeaks web app, open Workout Library.
Choose the ⋮ menu beside a library folder, select Import Workout, then choose the downloaded .zwo.
Drag the imported workout onto race day and confirm your TrainingPeaks bike FTP matches the calculator FTP.

TrainingPeaks currently imports planned workouts only from .zwo, so the library stores these distance-built chunks as predicted-duration blocks. On course, follow each interval's kilometre boundary and watt cue if your actual speed differs. Direct send is unavailable without approved TrainingPeaks developer API credentials. Official import instructions.

Do not fill this out:

Email & coach review

Send the key calculation details directly for a Moore Performance review, or use the email draft and copy actions as fallbacks.

No completed calculation yet.Calculate a split to prepare the email draft and coach-review package.

Your name for review Email reply address Plan PDF optional Coach notes optional

This static app stores plans in your browser. Coach-review requests are sent directly on the deployed Netlify site when delivery is configured; Netlify Forms, Open email draft and Copy details remain fallbacks. Open email draft is not sent until you press Send in your own mail app. Uploaded GPX files stay on this device, so attach them manually if needed.

Completed calculations 0 · email drafts opened 0 · coach reviews 0 · detail copies 0 · trial clicks 0

Kilometre by kilometre Detailed pacing table appears after calculation.

Km	Grade %	Wind m/s	Power W	Speed km/h	Split	Elapsed

Where this model is honest — and where it isn't

What it does: full physics forward model (aero drag, rolling resistance, gravity, drivetrain loss) solved per course segment from your GPX, with per-segment wind from the forecast bearing and hour-shifted conditions as your predicted ride progresses. Power is stepped — steady on the flats, lifted by your climb boost on grades over 2% — so NP, VI and TSS are computed from the actual power distribution (duration-weighted, a close approximation of the rolling-30s method). The calculator now reports model version, calculation time and input confidence; broad public validation should be treated as in progress until a larger predicted-versus-actual dataset is published.

What it doesn't do: variable mode is a simplified optimisation rule — power scales with how slow each segment is, capped at your Max %FTP and rescaled to hit the NP goal. It captures the big idea behind a BBS-style plan (spend watts where they buy the most time) without claiming BBS's segment-by-segment optimiser or its decade of calibration. The advanced corner/braking model is still a planning estimate based on GPX bearing, speed and handling assumptions, not a replacement for course reconnaissance or safe riding. CdA and Crr are presets unless you've tested; a wrong CdA moves the answer more than anything else on this page. Cheat-sheet numbers are duration-weighted averages per scenario on this course in these conditions — treat them as anchors, not laws.

The rule: treat the range, not the number. This is a sanity-check and pacing anchor — race-day execution still comes from your MP race plan.

Actual-ride calibration TCX/FIT import beta

Use a clean ride with reliable power, speed/GPS, matching equipment and recorded conditions. The estimate is shown with course match and residual error; nothing is applied until you choose Apply. Traffic, braking, drafting, position changes or uncertain wind can bias CdA, so record them in the ride notes.

Import real ride TCX or FIT Actual race split hh:mm:ss optional Profile name

Bike used Race / session name Session type Aero position held Ride notes

Saved aero profile

Repeated-loop aero testImport a repeated-loop FIT or TCX ride.

Setup A name Setup B name Change after loop Loop tolerance m

Race & session log No saved ride analyses yet.

Filter bike Filter type

Public validation & credibility Model version —

This report builds a predicted-vs-actual evidence base before any strong public accuracy claim is made. Add real race or ride outcomes, separate measured-CdA and preset-CdA cases, and explain large misses.

Actual bike split hh:mm:ss Course type CdA source Explanation required for large misses

Import CSV